Weekly Market Outlook November 4, 2018

“Far and away the best prize that life has to offer is the chance to work hard at work worth doing.” – Theodore Roosevelt

Pfäffikon SZ, Switzerland – Fortunately, October ended. October was the worst month in seven years for the S&P 500 (-7%). The Nasdaq (-9%) lost even more. The good news is that November has started reasonably well. The storm on the global stock markets does not seem to have subsided. As long as the S&P 500 is below 200-DMA, the chance of a test of the recent low (2603) is not excluded.

Last Friday, we saw more or less a forerunner of this. Under 200-DMA there is, in any case, increased volatility. Investors seem shocked by developments in the US housing market. Everyone points to the FANG and the tech shares, but construction is by far the hardest hit. 2008 is still an open nerve for investors. However, the current situation is not comparable with 2008. And not every cooling means emptying a bubble.

Historically, on the basis of the presidential cycle, the past month of October should have yielded one of the best investment results. However, every stock investor had a rude awakening. This does not mean that the power of the presidential cycle is no longer present. In all likelihood, investors are on the eve of one of the most substantial periods in the presidential cycle, and good results on the stock market lie ahead for a period of around nine months.

The new trading week is once again full of quarterly figures, but it is likely that the interim US elections will demand the most attention.

This material is communicated on November 4, 2018 by 1324 | by Thirteen Asset Management AG, Rietbrunnen 20, 8808 Pfäffikon SZ, Switzerland. This material is for information purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation or invitation to invest. Any organizations or products described in this material are mentioned for reference purposes only. This material is intended only for investment professionals and professional clients and must not be relied upon by any other person. It is proprietary information of 1324 | by Thirteen Asset Management AG and may not be reproduced or otherwise disseminated in whole or in part without prior consent from 1324 | by Thirteen Asset Management AG. Alternative investments can involve significant risks and the value of an investment may go down as well as up. There is no guarantee of trading performance and past or projected performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. We recommend to consult your bank, investment and/of tax adviser.